11/27/2022 0 Comments Precipitation totals california![]() ![]() Snow, too, is difficult to predict for the year ahead. Courtesy Ken James/California Department of Water Resources. Very little snow remained on the ground for the state's snow survey in the Sierra Nevada on April 1, 2022. "But obviously the last decade has shifted the balance towards more droughts." Both of those still are possible," Yarbrough said.ĭry spells punctuated by wet years are part of "the California story," Abazoglou said. At the same time, we've got to be mindful that it could be very wet and you could have flooding. ![]() "From the water management standpoint, we're being mindful that it very well could be dry. Rain and snow falls can affect how much of California's precious snowpack rushes into reservoirs or soaks into the soil, Anderson said. What will ultimately shape the next water year is the number of storms known as atmospheric rivers that make landfall, and the amount of precipitation they unleash. "Every year is such a unique story for water, which makes California exciting, but it also makes it hard to predict and say what will happen," Kalansky said. Often La Nina means drier conditions in southern California, but the effects on northern California watersheds critical to the state's water supply can be harder to predict, said Julie Kalansky, deputy director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. ![]() "Seeing things that we've never seen before is very much on the table," said John Yarbrough, assistant deputy director of the State Water Project, which funnels water from northern California to 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland. La Nina occurs when ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific are below normal, which can shift the storm track that California depends on. But La Nina conditions are highly likely to continue through at least the fall, with an 80% chance of persisting through January, for a third year in a row.Ī "three-peat" La Nina is rare: It has happened only twice before since record-keeping began. What the coming water year, which begins Oct. This precipitation map forecasting winter conditions shows continuing below-average rain and snow for the Bay Area. Swain said California’s fate will depend on how exactly the storm track shifts and that seasonal forecasts are inherently uncertain. PRECIPITATION TOTALS CALIFORNIA PLUSSo far, in California's recorded history, six previous droughts have lasted four or more years, two of them in the past 35 years.ĭespite some rain in September, weather watchers expect a hot and dry fall and warn that this winter could bring warm temperatures and below-average precipitation.Ĭonditions are shaping up to be a "recipe for drought": a La Nina climate pattern plus warm temperatures in the western tropical Pacific that could mean critical rain and snowstorms miss California, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and The Nature Conservancy. Courtesy Ken James/California Department of Water Resources.Īs California's 2022 water year ended last week, the parched state is bracing for another dry year - its fourth in a row. The Sierra Nevada had only small patches of snow near the Phillips Station meadow, shown shortly before the California Department of Water Resources conducted a snow survey on April 1, 2022. ![]()
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